MATRA: Modeling the Attack Surface of Agentic AI Systems -- OpenClaw Case Study

LLMs are increasingly deployed as autonomous agents with access to tools, databases, and external services, yet practitioners (across different sectors) lack systematic methods to assess how known threat classes translate into concrete risks within a specific agentic deployment. We present MATRA, a pragmatic threat modeling framework for agentic AI systems that adapts established risk assessment methodology to systematically assess how known LLM threats translate into deployment-specific risks. MATRA begins with an asset-based impact assessment and utilizes attack trees to determine the likelihood of these impacts occurring within the system architecture. We demonstrate MATRA on a personal AI agent deployment using OpenClaw, quantifying how architectural controls such as network sandboxing and least-privilege access reduce risk by limiting the blast radius of successful injections.

The Alpha Blending Hypothesis: Compositing Shortcut in Deepfake Detection

Recent deepfake detection methods demonstrate improved cross-dataset generalization, yet the underlying mechanisms remain underexplored. We introduce the Alpha Blending Hypothesis, positing that state-of-the-art frame-based detectors primarily function as alpha blending searchers; rather than learning semantic anomalies or specific generative neural fingerprints, they localize low-level compositing artifacts introduced during the integration of manipulated faces into target frames. We experimentally validate the hypothesis, demonstrating that deepfake detectors exhibit high sensitivity to the so-called self-blended images (SBI) and non-generative manipulations. We propose the method BlenD that leverages a large-scale, diverse dataset of real-only facial images augmented with SBI. This approach achieves the best average cross-dataset generalization on 15 compositional deepfake datasets released between 2019 and 2025 without utilizing explicitly generated deepfakes during training. Furthermore, we show that predictions from explicit blending searchers and models resilient to blending shortcuts are highly complementary, yielding a state-of-the-art AUROC of 94.0% in an ensemble configuration. The code with experiments and the trained model will be publicly released.

Automated Detection of Abnormalities in Zebrafish Development

Zebrafish embryos are a valuable model for drug discovery due to their optical transparency and genetic similarity to humans. However, current evaluations rely on manual inspection, which is costly and labor-intensive. While machine learning offers automation potential, progress is limited by the lack of comprehensive datasets. To address this, we introduce a large-scale dataset of high-resolution microscopic image sequences capturing zebrafish embryonic development under both control conditions and exposure to compounds (3,4-dichloroaniline). This dataset, with expert annotations at fine-grained temporal levels, supports two benchmarking tasks: (1) fertility classification, assessing zebrafish egg viability (130,368 images), and (2) toxicity assessment, detecting malformations induced by toxic exposure over time (55,296 images). Alongside the dataset, we present the first transformer-based baseline model that integrates spatiotemporal features to predict developmental abnormalities at early stages. Experimental results present the model's effectiveness, achieving 98% accuracy in fertility classification and 92% in toxicity assessment. These findings underscore the potential of automated approaches to enhance zebrafish-based toxicity analysis.

Trustworthy AI Suffers from Invariance Conflicts and Causality is The Solution

As artificial intelligence (AI), including machine learning (ML) models and foundation models (FMs), is increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains, ensuring their trustworthiness has become a central challenge. However, the core trustworthy AI objectives, such as fairness, robustness, privacy, and explainability, are hard to achieve simultaneously, especially while preserving utility. This position paper argues that causality is necessary to understand and balance trade-offs in performance and multiple objectives of trustworthy AI. We ground our arguments in re-interpreting trustworthy AI trade-offs as incompatible invariance requirements under different changes to the data-generating process. We then illustrate that causality provides a unifying framework for understanding how trade-offs in trustworthy AI arise, and how they can be softened or resolved through selective invariance. This perspective applies to both classical ML models and large-scale FMs. Our paper discusses how causal assumptions may be applied explicitly or implicitly in modern large-scale systems. Finally, we outline open challenges and opportunities for using causality to build more trustworthy AI.

Self-Improving Tabular Language Models via Iterative Group Alignment

While language models have been adapted for tabular data generation, two fundamental limitations remain: (1) static fine-tuning produces models that cannot learn from their own generated samples and adapt to self-correct, and (2) autoregressive objectives preserve local token coherence but neglect global statistical properties, degrading tabular quality. Reinforcement learning offers a potential solution but requires designing reward functions that balance competing objectives -- impractical for tabular data. To fill the gap, we introduce TabGRAA (Tabular Group-Relative Advantage Alignment), the first self-improving framework for tabular data generation via automated feedback. At each iteration, TabGRAA uses an \emph{automated quality signal} -- such as a two-sample distinguishability classifier or a distance-based reward -- to partition newly generated samples into high- and low-quality groups, then optimizes a group-relative advantage objective that reinforces realistic patterns while penalizing artifacts. The specific signal is a modular choice rather than a fixed component of the framework. This establishes a virtuous feedback cycle, where the quality signal is re-computed against newly \emph{generated synthetic} samples at each round; the language model is only fine-tuned on these self-generated signals, so no additional real record is exposed during alignment, mitigating data-leakage risk beyond the initial supervised fine-tuning. Experiments show TabGRAA outperforms existing methods in fidelity, utility, and privacy, while matching or exceeding diffusion-based synthesizers, advancing tabular synthesis from static statistical replication to dynamic, self-improving generation.

Inspectable AI for Science: A Research Object Approach to Generative AI Governance

This paper introduces AI as a Research Object (AI-RO), a paradigm for governing the use of generative AI in scientific research. Instead of debating whether AI is an author or merely a tool, we propose treating AI interactions as structured, inspectable components of the research process. Under this view, the legitimacy of an AI-assisted scientific paper depends on how model use is integrated into the workflow, documented, and made accountable. Drawing on Research Object theory and FAIR principles, we propose a framework for recording model configuration, prompts, and outputs through interaction logs and metadata packaging. These properties are particularly consequential in security and privacy (S&P) research, where provenance artifacts must satisfy confidentiality constraints, integrity guarantees, and auditability requirements that generic disclosure practices do not address. We implement a lightweight writing pipeline in which a language model synthesizes human-authored structured literature review notes under explicit constraints and produces a verifiable provenance record. We present this work as a position supported by an initial demonstrative workflow, arguing that governance of generative AI in science can be implemented as structured documentation, controlled disclosure, and integrity-preserving provenance capture. Based on this example, we outline and motivate a set of necessary future developments required to make such practices practical and widely adoptable.

Certified Circuits: Stability Guarantees for Mechanistic Circuits

Understanding how neural networks arrive at their predictions is essential for debugging, auditing, and deployment. Mechanistic interpretability pursues this goal by identifying circuits - minimal subnetworks responsible for specific behaviors. However, existing circuit discovery methods are brittle: circuits depend strongly on the chosen concept dataset and often fail to transfer out-of-distribution, raising doubts whether they capture concept or dataset-specific artifacts. We introduce Certified Circuits, which provide provable stability guarantees for circuit discovery. Our framework wraps any black-box discovery algorithm with randomized data subsampling to certify that circuit component inclusion decisions are invariant to bounded edit-distance perturbations of the concept dataset. Unstable neurons are abstained from, yielding circuits that are more compact and more accurate. On ImageNet and OOD datasets, certified circuits achieve up to 91% higher accuracy while using 45% fewer neurons, and remain reliable where baselines degrade. Certified Circuits puts circuit discovery on formal ground by producing mechanistic explanations that are provably stable and better aligned with the target concept. Code will be released soon!

Scalable Delphi: Large Language Models for Structured Risk Estimation

Quantitative risk assessment in high-stakes domains relies on structured expert elicitation to estimate unobservable properties. The gold standard - the Delphi method - produces calibrated, auditable judgments but requires months of coordination and specialist time, placing rigorous risk assessment out of reach for most applications. We investigate whether Large Language Models (LLMs) can serve as scalable proxies for structured expert elicitation. We propose Scalable Delphi, adapting the classical protocol for LLMs with diverse expert personas, iterative refinement, and rationale sharing. Because target quantities are typically unobservable, we develop an evaluation framework based on necessary conditions: calibration against verifiable proxies, sensitivity to evidence, and alignment with human expert judgment. We evaluate in the domain of AI-augmented cybersecurity risk, using three capability benchmarks and independent human elicitation studies. LLM panels achieve strong correlations with benchmark ground truth (Pearson r=0.87-0.95), improve systematically as evidence is added, and align with human expert panels - in one comparison, closer to a human panel than the two human panels are to each other. This demonstrates that LLM-based elicitation can extend structured expert judgment to settings where traditional methods are infeasible, reducing elicitation time from months to minutes.

IV Co-Scientist: Multi-Agent LLM Framework for Causal Instrumental Variable Discovery

In the presence of confounding between an endogenous variable and the outcome, instrumental variables (IVs) are used to isolate the causal effect of the endogenous variable. Identifying valid instruments requires interdisciplinary knowledge, creativity, and contextual understanding, making it a non-trivial task. In this paper, we investigate whether large language models (LLMs) can aid in this task. We perform a two-stage evaluation framework. First, we test whether LLMs can recover well-established instruments from the literature, assessing their ability to replicate standard reasoning. Second, we evaluate whether LLMs can identify and avoid instruments that have been empirically or theoretically discredited. Building on these results, we introduce IV Co-Scientist, a multi-agent system that proposes, critiques, and refines IVs for a given treatment-outcome pair. We also introduce a statistical test to contextualize consistency in the absence of ground truth. Our results show the potential of LLMs to discover valid instrumental variables from a large observational database.

Funny or Persuasive, but Not Both: Evaluating Fine-Grained Multi-Concept Control in LLMs

Large Language Models (LLMs) offer strong generative capabilities, but many applications require explicit and \textit{fine-grained} control over specific textual concepts, such as humor, persuasiveness, or formality. Prior approaches in prompting and representation engineering can provide coarse or single-attribute control, but systematic evaluation of multi-attribute settings remains limited. We introduce an evaluation framework for fine-grained controllability for both single- and dual-concept scenarios, focusing on linguistically distinct concept pairs (e.g., persuasiveness vs.~humor). Surprisingly, across multiple LLMs and generative tasks, we find that performance often drops in the dual-concept setting, even though the chosen concepts should in principle be separable. This reveals a fundamental limitation of naive prompting-based control: models struggle with compositionality even when concepts are intuitively independent. Our framework provides systematic evidence of this gap and offers a principled approach for measuring the ability of future methods for multi-concept control.